Blue Dogs in Danger of Losing Their Seats, Democrats to Hold House

Analysis of the New York Times and University of Virginia's Race Ratings for the 2010 Midterms reveals that 16 Blue Dogs (29% of the coalition) face tough reelection challenges. 5 Blue Dogs are in imminent danger of losing their seats.

This November, anywhere between 57 and 82 seat are actually competitive, however that number can be reduced to 33-37 seats if seats "leaning Democratic" are excluded. Republicans need 38 seats to capture the House of Representatives. According to this analysis, if everything holds otherwise constant, Republican recapture is unlikely given that many Democrats in toss up districts will win reelection. Republicans would need to sweep in all toss-up districts to gain a majority and win some leaning Democratic districts.
 

New York Times Race Rating * Blue Dogs Crosstabulation
Count
		Blue Dogs		Total
		Rest of Democratic Party	Blue Dogs
New York Times Race Rating	Toss Up	16	12	28
	Leaning Democratic	29	20	49
	Leaning Republican	1	4	5
Total		46	36	82

University of Virginia Race Rating * Blue Dogs Crosstabulation
Count
		Blue Dogs		Total
		Rest of Democratic Party	Blue Dogs
University of Virginia Race Rating	Toss Up	15	11	26
	Leaning Democratic	10	10	20
	Leaning Republican	6	5	11
Total		31	26	57